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Nov 3, 2012
11/12
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nevada, all the polls have the president lead bug it is close. same thing in wisconsin. president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by 6 over mitt romney. last week rasmussen had romney up by 2. and nbc has the president up by 6 points. got all that? joining us now from boston, david. he directs polling. >> he want to run it down from your point of view. you have canvassed the whole country, know what's going on. ohio, how do you see it? >> i see it really close. if you look at the last four polls, it's one point. 1 through 8 the poll was average four to five points. what we look at is the head-to-head number. the last three consecutive polls, excluding the two you mentioned were at 48. that's a sign of vulnerability. obviously you have seven ca
nevada, all the polls have the president lead bug it is close. same thing in wisconsin. president is ahead in all the polls except rasmussen, who has the race tied at 49. florida, all the policy out this week has obama leading romney, but very close. and in the commonwealth, up 5 points but cbs has the president up by two. north carolina, rasmussen has romney up by 6 and survey usa has the governor leading by 5. new hampshire, new england college has obama up by 6 over mitt romney. last week...
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Nov 6, 2012
11/12
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florida, virginia, wisconsin, colorado, iowa, new hampshire and nevada. joining me here in ohio is john avlon. he has been traveling the state aboard the cnn election express bus. i'm also joined by john king in washington, d.c. the electoral college map, how does it add up right now? >> when you talk to the two campaigns, it's as if even though it's one country, they live in parallel universes. both saying they will win tomorrow. the president is ahead in most of the key battleground states. they are down confidence in the obama campaign and don't get too much dispute out of the romney campaign that they will win the state of nevada. then they come to the midwest where you are. they are most confident in the midwest they will carry again. i know republicans watching are saying they'll prove you wrong. they're confident about the state of iowa. that would get the president to 259. takes 270 win. when you ask them about these battleground states, they say they're most confidence about ohio, where you are. the president took that game over. no republicans w
florida, virginia, wisconsin, colorado, iowa, new hampshire and nevada. joining me here in ohio is john avlon. he has been traveling the state aboard the cnn election express bus. i'm also joined by john king in washington, d.c. the electoral college map, how does it add up right now? >> when you talk to the two campaigns, it's as if even though it's one country, they live in parallel universes. both saying they will win tomorrow. the president is ahead in most of the key battleground...
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Nov 5, 2012
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poll numbers we've been seeing, we're going to see that latinos are going to hold florida, virginia, nevada and colorado. what we are seeing is very high support for the president. so what we are seeing is about 74% of latinos saying they are either certain to or very likely to vote for the president and the worst case scenario, 64% of latinos are saying they are certain to vote for the president. is so with that, you are going to secure those states and don't forget, there is still a smattering of latinos in north carolina, wisconsin and iowa. 3%, 4%, but when it is so close, that 3% of mobilized latino turnout is going to make the difference. >> on, let's talk about pennsylvania because when we bring up close, pennsylvania right now, 47 to 47 in a state that normally, the president would have a comfortable lead in. stephanie cutter said on "morning joe" today that it's not realistic that governor romney should make a play for pennsylvania or even think about winning pennsylvania. what's your reaction to that? >> i'm glad they're giving governor romney advice because if he follows the advi
poll numbers we've been seeing, we're going to see that latinos are going to hold florida, virginia, nevada and colorado. what we are seeing is very high support for the president. so what we are seeing is about 74% of latinos saying they are either certain to or very likely to vote for the president and the worst case scenario, 64% of latinos are saying they are certain to vote for the president. is so with that, you are going to secure those states and don't forget, there is still a...
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Nov 8, 2012
11/12
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look at states like nevada. the white vote smaller, why? latino vote, nearly 20% of the vote in the state of nevada. the president gets 71%. can't win. you can't win. the on other side can't win. in colorado, much more of a white vote. 78%. and latinos, 14%. and the president getting 75%. let me shift walls, one more minute of your time. i want to show you this. nevada used to be a swing state in presidential politics, colorado used to be republican, and florida a swing state in presidential politics, if democrats keep getting 66%, 70% of the latino vote, watch this. the darker the area, the higher the latino population, so in navy, colorado, and new mexico, it's almost game over. in florida, still waiting for the final results. latino vote critical to the president's lead. and if the republicans don't solve this, we might be talking about texas as a blue state, anderson. >> wow. amazing to look at the maps like that. john, appreciate that. given that, how does the republican party evolve? what is next for them? someone on the extreme right
look at states like nevada. the white vote smaller, why? latino vote, nearly 20% of the vote in the state of nevada. the president gets 71%. can't win. you can't win. the on other side can't win. in colorado, much more of a white vote. 78%. and latinos, 14%. and the president getting 75%. let me shift walls, one more minute of your time. i want to show you this. nevada used to be a swing state in presidential politics, colorado used to be republican, and florida a swing state in presidential...
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Nov 5, 2012
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in would argue that mash -- michigan and nevada should be leaning obama before last week. we have a very close election. and it is going to be decided on election night with -- with a bunch of potential surprises. >> chris: you have a white board. >> think about this. on the third of november, 2008, president obamma was at or above 50% in 7 of the 13 states that year. in those same state this is year, on same date, 4 years later, he is 50%, not above, but 50% in just two, wisconsin and nev dismef and wisconsin, he is only at 50% because there is 1 pole, an outliwer an 8-point lead. we have gone from cruise into victory in 2008, to a tight, tight, tight race in 2012. >> chris: lanlast question. what do you make of romney going to pennsylvania today? what do you make of obama with last-minute ad buys in florida and virginia? who's got in wind at the back? who is serious? hois bluffing? >> they are all serious and they are not bluffing. president obama has difficulty in florida and virginia two, states where the real clear politics average goes to romney. and pennsylvania has
in would argue that mash -- michigan and nevada should be leaning obama before last week. we have a very close election. and it is going to be decided on election night with -- with a bunch of potential surprises. >> chris: you have a white board. >> think about this. on the third of november, 2008, president obamma was at or above 50% in 7 of the 13 states that year. in those same state this is year, on same date, 4 years later, he is 50%, not above, but 50% in just two, wisconsin...
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Nov 3, 2012
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nevada the ground game, harry reid's political machine, i think obama is going to win, nevada. >> greta: you are from wisconsin, john, and you were just there. >> i was. everywhere you go you meet people who voted for obama the last time and are going to vote for mitt romney this time around. you have a lot of people switching sides over there. the scott walker recall energized republicans and brought independents into the republican party who liked what scott walker was doing. there are couple of problems facing mitt romney. one is that the recall electorate that gave scott walker a 7 point margin of victory supported obama. there is still a problem there of 500,000 voters who came out in 2008 who didn't come out out in the recall. people think those are obama voters and if they come out that could spell bad news. >> greta: bart star now endorsed governor romney and in wisconsin he is a big deal. does is it have any impact? >> he is a big deal. but president obama had charles woodson the other day. if aaron rodgers had been there on the ground probably a 20 point holdout for mitt romne
nevada the ground game, harry reid's political machine, i think obama is going to win, nevada. >> greta: you are from wisconsin, john, and you were just there. >> i was. everywhere you go you meet people who voted for obama the last time and are going to vote for mitt romney this time around. you have a lot of people switching sides over there. the scott walker recall energized republicans and brought independents into the republican party who liked what scott walker was doing....
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Nov 19, 2012
11/12
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republican lance gilman the newly elected county commissioner of nevada's storey county happens to be the owner of mustang ranch. that's right, the infamous brothel out there. nevada, just to clear things up, is the only state with legalized prostitution and gilman just game the first such owner to make his way to winning an election of public office. according to the county xhish ler elect himself, people want to focus on the brothel issue. i have had a wonderful 43 year record of business success that i bring to the commission. it is kind of a hard issue to ignore. gilman by the way calls himself a dyed in the wool republican who loves american values. >>> finally, last week steve schmidt said on meet the press that a lot of swing voters think of the republican party as one of loons and wackos. mike murphy, another republican strategist just weighed in on "meet the press." here he is. >> this is an existential crisis for the republican party and we have to have a brutal discussion about it. we alienate young voters because of gay marriage, we alienate hispanics and we've lost our co
republican lance gilman the newly elected county commissioner of nevada's storey county happens to be the owner of mustang ranch. that's right, the infamous brothel out there. nevada, just to clear things up, is the only state with legalized prostitution and gilman just game the first such owner to make his way to winning an election of public office. according to the county xhish ler elect himself, people want to focus on the brothel issue. i have had a wonderful 43 year record of business...
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i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be spending a lot of good times. >> here it is. that's what we're missing here. new hampshire over to there. >> new hampshire. >> and then we have it. >> thank you so much, chuck. >> bye now. >> chuck and the magic map. up next, mayor antonio villaraigosa in florida today, and house majority leader eric cantor from virginia, live from democracy plaza only here on msnbc. [ female announcer ] the humana walmart-preferred rx plan p-d-p gives you a low national plan premium... so you can focus on what really matters. call humana at 1-800-808-4003. colin powell: yes. when he took ove
i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be...
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Nov 3, 2012
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we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have the polling data that showed they were going to win and they did not win in any of those states. this is just part of the way the game is played. it's just bluffing. and that is important context for understanding what's going on in the last four days of the campaign. there are patterns to how presidential elections end. some of the same stuff happens every four years. specifically, in 1992, the republican candidate was poppy bush. he went and campaigned in pennsylvania. and then the next day, he lost pennsylvania. the next election, 1996, bob dole. right before the election,
we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have...
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Nov 5, 2012
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in a couple of the latest polls, usa today has president up by seven points in nevada, broadened his lead quite a bit. in las vegas, review journal, which endorsed governor romney, has the president up by four points in this state. it is all down now to what happens on election day. and both campaigns now fighting for every last vote. >> i'm ted rowlands in milwaukee, wisconsin, where republicans on the ground in this state know they have the work cut out for them. polling shows the president is up in this state, significantly as much as 8% in one poll. republicans say they can make that ground up and the reason is they have a re strong ground game here in wisconsin as a result of the gubernatorial recall election of governor scott walker earlier this year. they say they're in place to make a difference in terms of getting out the vote. they're confident they can do it tomorrow. democrats are not taking any chances here. they are rewarding any volunteer this comes to help canvas and get out the vote from neighboring illinois, where they ticket to the obama party on tuesday night in c
in a couple of the latest polls, usa today has president up by seven points in nevada, broadened his lead quite a bit. in las vegas, review journal, which endorsed governor romney, has the president up by four points in this state. it is all down now to what happens on election day. and both campaigns now fighting for every last vote. >> i'm ted rowlands in milwaukee, wisconsin, where republicans on the ground in this state know they have the work cut out for them. polling shows the...
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Nov 2, 2012
11/12
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i have been to nevada multiteletimes and colorado. i forget all the other places. went to iowa last week. we have gotten around. we are happy to do t. there is a lot of excitement out there. of course, all over florida in the last week with governor romney. everywhere we go, you can see the excitement. it's real, it's palpable. we can sense. it we are really excited about it. >> greta: this is a big country. i am curious, as you went to the states, was it usually the same issue -- can you tell -- because usually the rallies are speaking to the group. they are not having a profound amount of intersection because you are busy going somewhere else. but is it the same? >> you do. if you work the rope line or you get to talk to people on the ground, they will tell you, there are concerns about the economy and jobs, that's very real. there is a profound sense that the election is a choice between two very different types of people. where the government will increasingly become more dominant or a new future, where we reim-- embrace the free enterprise system and allow the
i have been to nevada multiteletimes and colorado. i forget all the other places. went to iowa last week. we have gotten around. we are happy to do t. there is a lot of excitement out there. of course, all over florida in the last week with governor romney. everywhere we go, you can see the excitement. it's real, it's palpable. we can sense. it we are really excited about it. >> greta: this is a big country. i am curious, as you went to the states, was it usually the same issue -- can you...
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what do you make of colorado, nevada, iowa, new hampshire? >> well, look, the easiest way to look at this is even if you look at the real clear politics average which includes a lot of the goofy quinnipiac poles and marist polls. the republicans are winning, indiana,, north carolina, virginia and florida. in fact, if you take a look at that all of the mccain states plus 30s that they are waning and i do think they are going to win, republicans are going to win all four of these states. is they are at 248. then you look at ohio which i think the early vote numbers are clear indication of of what is going to happen in ohio. that s another 18 electoral votes. and then colorado which is, you know, is in the rcp average just under water, 9/10 of a percent. but that is largely because of a couple of outliar polls that have huge numbers more democrats than republicans. i think we are going to win colorado and that gets you 275. and we are going to pick up out of ohio, new hampshire, nevada or minnesota, pennsylvania or wisconsin we are going to pick
what do you make of colorado, nevada, iowa, new hampshire? >> well, look, the easiest way to look at this is even if you look at the real clear politics average which includes a lot of the goofy quinnipiac poles and marist polls. the republicans are winning, indiana,, north carolina, virginia and florida. in fact, if you take a look at that all of the mccain states plus 30s that they are waning and i do think they are going to win, republicans are going to win all four of these states. is...
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Nov 6, 2012
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i will give you nevada as your best of the battleground states. what's your worst? what are you most worried about? >> well, you know, john, somebody was quoted yesterday as saying that's like choosing between our children. >> so choose. >> we are tied or -- i'm not going to do that. we're tied or ahead in every single battleground state. certainly some of them are tighter than others. north carolina is extremely tight. but we're pleased with where we are going into election day. we have advantage on the early vote. we've done significant work with voter registration in that state. we're close in florida. again, significant advantage on early vote. and done a lot of work on voter registration. >> can i run that through the universal political translator and say you're most worried about north carolina and florida? >> those are your words. >> let me bring in david gergen. he's also got a question. >> stephanie, good to see you. tell us what three things we should be looking for tomorrow night as a sense of which way it's going. what are you going to be looking for? >
i will give you nevada as your best of the battleground states. what's your worst? what are you most worried about? >> well, you know, john, somebody was quoted yesterday as saying that's like choosing between our children. >> so choose. >> we are tied or -- i'm not going to do that. we're tied or ahead in every single battleground state. certainly some of them are tighter than others. north carolina is extremely tight. but we're pleased with where we are going into election...
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Nov 10, 2012
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silicone valley a lot of countries have moved to nevada and texas, including start up companies that can't start up. bigger companies have much easier time in california but california is in billions of collars of debt because of high taxes and regulations. >> laura, there is more millionaires in california than all the red states combined. this is jmpleghts money doesn't buy you brains. it buys you nice houses in brethrenwood. >> higher revenue. making key investments. >> tell france and portugal and spain that. france is raising the tax rate to 90%. in france businesses are leaving france. >> stop changing, nobody is talking 90%. you always use that number it's totally bogus. we are talking about going back to clinton. >> laura: it's a job killer. it's going to kill more jobs. >> 24 million. >> laura: a congressman who turned on his party now has some provocative thoughts on republicans and the african-american vote. he will be here to explain and then preelection lay off threats are now a post election reality. we have a disturbing report. up from currency trading for a few to a c
silicone valley a lot of countries have moved to nevada and texas, including start up companies that can't start up. bigger companies have much easier time in california but california is in billions of collars of debt because of high taxes and regulations. >> laura, there is more millionaires in california than all the red states combined. this is jmpleghts money doesn't buy you brains. it buys you nice houses in brethrenwood. >> higher revenue. making key investments. >>...
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. >> what part of nevada are you from? >> we're from australia. >> nevada is a swing state, but colorado is also a swing state. are you getting inundated with ads. >> oh my gosh. it's horrible. >> does it make you more engaged in the process or less. >> less. i turn the station now. i'm not even watching the tv now. i don't want to hear it we got to catch the bus. >> not a good time if you're in vegas. >> i have another headache from my holiday costume. have you seen that show britney and abby? they were conjoined. i was that, britney and abby. i had an extra head. >> who do you think is ahead. >> romney all the way. >> why? >> obama is not the biggest fan here. >> of gambling? >> no, obama is just--nobody likes him here. >> the odds are-- >> they don't like him over here. >> yet you're in agreement. >> i don't like him either. >> how come? >> he sucks. he has ruined the economy in in the last four years basically. he needs to go. >> it's funny to make fun of conjoined twins. >> selma hayek. >> let me ask you a question ab
. >> what part of nevada are you from? >> we're from australia. >> nevada is a swing state, but colorado is also a swing state. are you getting inundated with ads. >> oh my gosh. it's horrible. >> does it make you more engaged in the process or less. >> less. i turn the station now. i'm not even watching the tv now. i don't want to hear it we got to catch the bus. >> not a good time if you're in vegas. >> i have another headache from my holiday...
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Nov 6, 2012
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iowa and nevada have been put away. i don't think new hampshire and wisconsin have. but i think that's reflect in that poll. the second that's occurred is every single poll i've seen shows more optimism about the economy than there was a month ago. not people aren't off the charts mind you, but a third of the people think the economy is in good shape. another 20% think it's getting in better shape and those are better numbers than the summer. >> rose: let me ask about florida, john harris, and pennsylvania. >> it looks like florida is most likely in romney's camp. not certain. it seems to me that if obama wins florida he's going to win a bunch of other states and we'll have a map that looks more like 2008 than we've been thinking this last month or so where hi would win most of the state he is won in 2008 minus north carolina and indiana. that's an early night for us all. althoughs pennsylvania better than i do. i don't think it's been awe thenltally in play. i think there was a series of head fakes going on but that's never been a central battleground. >> rose: mark
iowa and nevada have been put away. i don't think new hampshire and wisconsin have. but i think that's reflect in that poll. the second that's occurred is every single poll i've seen shows more optimism about the economy than there was a month ago. not people aren't off the charts mind you, but a third of the people think the economy is in good shape. another 20% think it's getting in better shape and those are better numbers than the summer. >> rose: let me ask about florida, john...
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. >> i don't know what the heck he was doing in nevada while people are still being discovered dead in new york. if i were the president of the united states, i sure wouldn't be flitting around the midwest and the west and my job would be making sure this thing was followed through to the very end. >> what is your reaction to that? >> well, rudy giuliani might be the only person in america who believes that. i know he's a former mayor of new york but the current mayor of new york, the governors of new jersey, connecticut, new york, local officials, they know this president and his administration are working every day to stand by them. so i think that the president, as we have been campaigning these last few days, every moment he's not on the stage, he's on the phone. he was today, with governors and local officials in the region, talking to his director of fema, our director of homeland security, and i think that where the focus needs to be is how do we stand by those in new york, new jersey, connecticut, west virginia, who have been affected. this is going to take awhile to recover fr
. >> i don't know what the heck he was doing in nevada while people are still being discovered dead in new york. if i were the president of the united states, i sure wouldn't be flitting around the midwest and the west and my job would be making sure this thing was followed through to the very end. >> what is your reaction to that? >> well, rudy giuliani might be the only person in america who believes that. i know he's a former mayor of new york but the current mayor of new...
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i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that seems a pretty good indication of where this state is going. i'll give sail ver lia silver l mitt romney, and that is a lot like colorado. nevada has a very high mormon population. 7%, which is actually fairly high, and again, mormons accounted for a quarter of the electorate in the caucuses. so i think if they turn out in big numbers and it's been really hard to tell where they're at, because they haven't been very vocal, but if they turn out in big numbers, i think mitt romney could get the state. i don't expect him to. >> i would expect him to turn out in big n
i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that...
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the president in states like ohio, or seen as a couple point lead in tricky states like wisconsin and nevada and places like that, and yet when you look at the national numbers, you see a much more murky situation. what's the difference? >> well, the difference is that it turns out that white working class voters in the midwest and the industrial midwest are different from white working class voters in the south. with jim messina and stagg about why they don't care about national numbers. the first thing if you look at the deep south, and appalachia, places where there's a lot of resistance to the president, he's polling below -- he's polling 25%, 30%, the -- those really, really red states, in the blue states, the president like where he's far ahead he's ahead by 10 or 12 points and in the red states by 30 or 40 points. chris: the red states, it's like a ballooning up of the national number. but it doesn't really hurt him electorally. >> that's the point. the national polling organizations like gallup, especially, which had romney ahead by five or circumstances points before they had -- six
the president in states like ohio, or seen as a couple point lead in tricky states like wisconsin and nevada and places like that, and yet when you look at the national numbers, you see a much more murky situation. what's the difference? >> well, the difference is that it turns out that white working class voters in the midwest and the industrial midwest are different from white working class voters in the south. with jim messina and stagg about why they don't care about national numbers....